With the 2024 election on the horizon, there’s a clear uptick in the US economy. This improvement might be a big deal when it comes to who’ll win the next elections, as it seems folks are starting to feel better about their financial prospects. Digging into the economic stats gives us a mixed bag of results, but overall, there’s optimism in the air.
The Turning Tide in the American Economy
- Inflation Rates: There has been a significant decrease in inflation from its peak in the summer of 2022, signaling a potential relief for the American wallet.
- Stock Market Revival: The U.S. stock market, particularly technology stocks, has shown a robust recovery, which is a positive sign for investors and retirement accounts.
- Mortgage Rate Reduction: A slight easing in mortgage rates in recent weeks has brought some respite in the housing sector.
- Strong Employment Market: The job market continues to thrive with unemployment rates remaining near historic lows.
Even though there are good signs, we still have to deal with issues like possible world tensions messing with oil costs and products. Plus, the stock market’s just back to where it was a couple of years back, and people are only just starting feel better after the hit they took from the pandemic. Consumer Confidence on the Upswing
Consumer Confidence on the Upswing
Key indicators of consumer confidence show a notable increase:
- The consumer survey from the University of Michigan shows that people are more confident now than they’ve been since mid-2021. Confidence has gone up by 29% in the last two months.
- One big reason for this boost is that gas prices have dropped, making everyday expenses less of a burden for most Americans.
Economist James McCann of abrdn remarks on the imperfect correlation between sentiment and spending, but acknowledges the political implications this may have for President Joe Biden’s administration.
Subtle Improvements in the Housing Market
The U.S. housing market still has its problems, but it’s slowly getting better:
- Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest point since May 2023 recently, which is good news for people looking to buy homes.
- Homebuilders are feeling more positive, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which went up quite a bit.
Alicia Huey, the head of NAHB, says she’s hopeful but still worried about issues like the increasing cost of materials and not enough building lots.
Economic Performance vs. Public Perception
The U.S. economy is doing well but people think otherwise:
The economy keeps joblessness down and it’s been growing steadily, better than what was predicted, even when the pandemic hit.But even with this good news, until not long ago, folks felt like we were in a slump.This mismatch might come from the pandemic’s hangover and the way the media zooms in on the bad stuff about how money’s moving.
The 2024 Presidential Election and Economic Factors
The upcoming election may be influenced by these economic trends:
- A potential scenario for the 2024 presidential election could mirror the 2012 campaign, where improving economic conditions positively impacted voters’ views and the incumbent’s chances.
- Unique factors in 2024, such as the political landscape and uneven recovery across sectors, add complexity to the economic narrative.
While economists no longer predict an imminent recession, the expected slow growth might still cast a shadow on the economic recovery narrative.
The latest news on the U.S. economy gives us reasons to feel a bit hopeful, but we’re still on our toes. Even though the bounce-back isn’t the same across the board and there are hurdles along the way, changes in how people feel about spending money, how well stocks are doing, and the state of home-buying could really sway the presidential race in 2024. We might just be seeing a change in the economic mood as we move closer to the election.